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In focus: Extreme heavy precipitation occurs in southern China
El Ni?o peaking in December 2023 is on track to end around April
Blue Book on Climate Change of China unveiled
In focus: Extreme heavy precipitation occurs in southern China
Since April 19, 2024, continuous heavy rainfall and severe convective weather have been observed in the southern parts of South of the Yangtze River Region and South China, characterized by large accumulated rainfall, high degree of overlap in heavy rainfall areas, extreme rainfall intensity, and distinct severe convective features.
El Ni?o peaking in December 2023 is on track to end around April
In January 2024, the sea surface temperature (SST) in most portions of the Equatorial Pacific was higher than that in the same period of normal years, with the warm water center in the Eastern Pacific warmer by more than 2.5°C.
Meteorological technologies against recent bad weather
From January 31 to February 5, widespread rainy and snowy weather process continuously plagued China, with central-eastern regions most affected.
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High-Impact Weather Forecasting
Numerical Weather Prediction
Grid Forecasting
Climate Projection
Climate Model
Information System
High-Impact Weather Forecasting
The National Meteorological Centre (NMC) undertakes the responsibility of issuing forecasts and warnings for 13 different types of hazardous weather conditions within the next 24 hours. These include typhoons, heavy rain, severe convective weather, blizzards, cold waves, gales at sea, sandstorms, low temperatures, high temperatures, frosts, ice storms, heavy fog, and haze. Additionally, NMC collaborates with the departments of natural and water resources to issue warnings for 4 categories of meteorological disasters, which are floods in small and medium-sized rivers, flash floods, geological disasters, and agricultural meteorological disaster risks.
In recent years, NMC has continuously optimized and improved its dynamic tracking of heavy rain, fine-grained analysis of extreme events, and core forecasting techniques.?As a result,the accuracy of heavy rain forecasts has increased annually?under various lead times. Based on the intelligent grid precipitation and meteorological disaster risk warning, the small and medium-sized river, flash flood, and geological disaster warning operational system has also been continuously improved. A distributed hydro-meteorological model and a disaster risk model based on the hydrological model at the basin level have been constructed, effectively enhancing the guidance capability for hydro-meteorological operations at all levels of weather stations.
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Numerical Weather Prediction
Through continuous research and development of core technologies, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has steadily improved the performance of its numerical weather model (NWP) models, and has completed the research and development of the CMA Global Assimilation Forecasting System (CMA-GFS) with a resolution of 12.5 kilometers, the CMA Regional Numerical Forecasting Model with a resolution of 1 kilometer and a one-hour update (CMA-MESO), and has established an ensemble forecasting system with a resolution of 50 kilometers for the whole world, and a resolution of 10 kilometers for the Chinese region.
Climate models have been developing in CMA since 1995. The first-generation climate model was developed from 1995 to 2004, namely Beijing Climate Center ocean-atmosphere Coupled Model BCC-CM1.0. This model was used for seasonal climate prediction in China. During 2005-2011, a new fully-coupled climate (BCC-CSM) was developed.
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Grid Forecasting
Based on multi-source and multi-scale numerical model forecasts, supplemented by enhanced observations across the country and the fused real-time analysis field of China, the Central Meteorological Observatory utilizes new post-processing techniques such as machine learning and artificial intelligence to construct a comprehensive product system. This system includes minute-level rolling nowcasting, hourly updated short-term forecasts, scheduled short-to-medium term forecasts, and daily extended-range forecasts at a national resolution of 5 kilometers and a time scale of 0-30 days with intervals of 10 minutes/1 hour/3 hours/12 hours. Globally, forecasts are provided at a resolution of 10 kilometers and a time scale of 0-10 days with intervals of 1 hour/3 hours. The seamless intelligent digital grid forecasting product system has been made available to more than 10,000 cities worldwide, offering accurate point-to-point forecasting services. Validated results show that the grid forecast accuracy is significantly better than mainstream raw model forecasts at home and abroad, making it advantageous compared to similar international forecast products.
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Climate Projection
CMA has fully developed climate event forecasting services. Operational capacity building has been conducted for significant climate events during the East Asian summer monsoon, including monitoring and forecasting key circulation patterns and the onset and development processes of winter/summer monsoons. Monitoring and forecasting products have been established for the pre-flood season in South China, the plum rain, the rainy season in North China, and the autumn rain in Western China,so as to establish a comprehensive operation for the monitoring, diagnosis and forecasting of the rainy season process. Sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting products have been developed for the key atmospheric circulation systems influencing the early or late onset of various rainy seasons, establishing objective forecasting services for climate events at the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale.
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Climate Model
The China Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System (CMME), developed by the Beijing Climate Centre, is an extensible climate prediction system that integrates forecast data from multiple domestic and international mainstream climate models. The system consists of four subsystems that provide monthly-seasonal, sub-seasonal, climate phenomena prediction and prediction verification.
The monthly and seasonal prediction subsystem includes 9 domestic and international models with an atmospheric horizontal resolution of 1°x1° and oceanic horizontal resolution of 1°x1°. It provides deterministic and probabilistic prediction products for basic climate elements such as temperature, precipitation, and sea surface temperature on a monthly and rolling seasonal basis for the next 6 months.
The sub-seasonal prediction subsystem consists of three models with a horizontal resolution of 1.5°x1.5°, capable of providing forecasts for the next 15-60 days?or 3-12 "hou".?It offers rolling forecast products for basic climatic elements at 5 days intervals, every half a month, and at monthly scales.
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?Information System
CMADaas, the cloud-based meteorological big data platform, is a "processing plant" for China's massive meteorological data, which comprehensively manages and provides meteorological "data, computing power and algorithm" resources, and supports "cloud + terminal" meteorological operations.
The meteorological integrated real-time monitoring system -"Tianjing", realizes the intensive national meteorological integrated monitoring and operation and maintenance, which adopts vivid forms of expression to visually present the national meteorological information resource capacity and operation status, and system operation status, etc., and the whole process of data flow, so as to explicitly display the national meteorological informatization operation.
"Tianheng Tianyan" is a comprehensive meteorological observation product system integrates weather radars, wind profiles, cloud radars, microwave radiometers, large-scale unmanned aerial vehicles, and data related to lightning, water vapor, ground, sounding, ecology, atmospheric composition, oceans and other?multi-source data information, which is characterized with diversified observations, and massive and informative data.
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